Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.667491 0.776668 0.897636 1.041555 1.208077 1.394665 1.619597
2025-02-09 0.497957 0.646360 0.828928 1.069801 1.379083 1.762764 2.274953
2025-02-16 0.401860 0.563811 0.778397 1.083021 1.503965 2.064893 2.869218
2025-02-23 0.333899 0.499185 0.731850 1.082421 1.596609 2.322639 3.425669
2025-03-02 0.281726 0.445107 0.687499 1.072091 1.666033 2.547659 3.955528
2025-03-09 0.244067 0.405181 0.655719 1.072027 1.745218 2.789957 4.533913
2025-03-16 0.206231 0.358382 0.605466 1.033879 1.756574 2.924900 4.956041
2025-03-23 0.195048 0.353298 0.620579 1.102200 1.946299 3.362105 5.915298
2025-03-30 0.169115 0.318770 0.581241 1.071977 1.964092 3.514062 6.408670
2025-04-06 0.146529 0.286839 0.541870 1.035659 1.964921 3.634032 6.855720
2025-04-13 0.127930 0.259610 0.507232 1.002877 1.966771 3.753547 7.311862
2025-04-20 0.117425 0.246506 0.497124 1.014674 2.052668 4.034508 8.098529
2025-04-27 0.113307 0.245989 0.511885 1.078220 2.249187 4.551095 9.409777
2025-05-04 0.106046 0.238031 0.510966 1.110363 2.387614 4.971903 10.584430
2025-05-11 0.097867 0.226894 0.501953 1.124195 2.489346 5.329506 11.669941
2025-05-18 0.089420 0.213916 0.487247 1.123576 2.559530 5.628419 12.663917
2025-05-25 0.081166 0.200190 0.469106 1.112861 2.605871 5.881026 13.585270
2025-06-01 0.074605 0.189517 0.456424 1.112795 2.675729 6.191447 14.669002
2025-06-08 0.066176 0.173109 0.428405 1.073222 2.649327 6.283984 15.266006
2025-06-15 0.065357 0.175611 0.445528 1.144094 2.892771 7.017805 17.441809
2025-06-22 0.058729 0.162251 0.422360 1.112743 2.884066 7.161473 18.222590
2025-06-29 0.052497 0.149052 0.397929 1.075068 2.854923 7.252638 18.884499
2025-07-06 0.047117 0.137400 0.375995 1.041061 2.830917 7.353352 19.581156